Sensex at 60,000. Big Correction/ Recession under way. Time to be cautious
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Sensex is at 60,000 + Will it touch 100,000 soon ? Well, certainly it will. Why not ? But more important question is when ? Not any time soon for sure. In fact, a sure shot correction is underway.
Even though future is uncertain, why I am so sure about an upcoming correction ? Well following are the reasons.
(1) Sensex/Nifty Average PE has remained more than 30 for quite some time. It can not sustain it more. Average PE is around 20. Even if you consider bit higher, it can not remain above 25. so there is 15 % correction any how.
(2) High inflation across the Globe - Be it USA, UK or India all these countries have printed lot of money, specially USA which has printed 40 % of total Dollars till date in just one year. All this will certainly cause very high inflation in USA which will ruin the party across the globe.
(3) Interest rates are lowest in history - If you consider last few decades, India has not seen such low interest rates. Excess fund availability will further increase inflation. Rising fuel pricing also will trigger inflation and will reduce people's income and will limit their spending power.
(4) China will be the bigger reason of recession. Growth rate has already slow down in last few years. World's factory is slowing down. Real Estate Crunch will reduce it substantially and it will be the lowest in last 3 decades. If Largest consumer of raw material China will reduce its consumption, whole world will be adversely affected.
(5) HNA group in China has gone bankrupt with debt more than $ 187 B. Ever Grand debt is more than $ 300 B. These are huge numbers and lets not forget..... there are many more in pipe line. This will surely trigger a recession and recovery will surely take long.
Conclusion : If you are a long term investor, you will get an opportunity to buy at low level very soon. Sensex can be any where between 38,000- 50,000 for a good amount of time. Few of the stocks may correct more than 50 % as well. So if you have missed the recent Boom Bus, next fall is coming very soon.....
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